article by Sahil Mangal

U.S. economic situation is evolving rapidly in 2012 – if not broken song unrest in the company, the Associated Press survey major economic experts.

Unemployment is unlikely to slip from the current 8.6% of the volume, but by the time the primary implementing agencies of Barack works for reelection in November, the economy, experts say.

three numbers of private, corporate and educational experts predict economic conditions in emerging economies by 2.4% next season. This year is probably less than 2%.

is a seasonal increase in the conclusion. The economic situation has at least 100,000 new jobs five months in a row – the largest capacity since 2006.

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell by at least stage since May 2008. The figure shows that the layoffs are all but stopped, and then retrieve.

And the economic situation prevented harmful Authorities Exclusive pre-regulation increases the Social Security payroll tax reduction, which would expire at the end of the season. But the legislature could identify only two months of expansion.

economic experts questioned the December 14 to 20 predict the nation’s 177,000 to work on a monthly political election day in 2012 to create. It would lead to a monthly average of 132,000 job so far in 2011.

Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, says the U.S. economic situation is still susceptible to external influences. Great is the risk that the financial turmoil in the debt will lead the world credit score can block like that hit Wall Street in late 2008.

impact on the U.S. economic situation, he says, perhaps not as dangerous as it is better to grow by 4% to 5% annually. But if the development of 2% or 3% captured, a major international upheaval expected to create jobs and more unemployment.

Beyond the Company, the problems in other areas may also be an emergency in the U.S. economy during the next period, the economy, experts say. Congestion before the 2012 Congressional elections, and the unexpected international events, as this is the time to direct orders Arabia in May, sluggish American economy. Three economic experts said Fischer, an increasing stress with Iran is a concern.

Without outside influence, experts predict the economy, hardly enough for the work of a generation in 2012 are above the residents progress and frustrated with the return of workers to apply.

“I do not know if it will be sufficient to stem the unemployment number down,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist for the national ratio of Companies.

AP economic experts predict the level of unemployment in a corner of a recession level of 8.4% when voters go to forms in November, the unemployment rate was 8.6% in November

majority (56 percent) of the Economic experts say economic climate may be the order of the federal guidelines. The Fed has said it intends to maintain short-term payments to almost zero, at least in mid-2013, when the economic situation is still fragile. Close to the lender also has begun to offer to try to force down the rising, and other long-term payments through next year in May

Sam Vaknin author of this article

III. Scientific MethodTo classified as science, economic theory must satisfy the following conditions: All Inclusive (anamnetic)? It must encompass, integrate and include all the known facts of the case. Coherent? It is a chronological, structured and causal. Consistent? Self-consistent (the sub-”stories” can not conflict with each other or against the principal grain “Report”), and consistent with the observed phenomena (both related and related to the other universe). Logically compatible? It is not contrary to the laws of logic both internally (the story is set to be a part of the internal logic) and externally (the Aristotelian logic, which applies to macro-observable world). Insightful? It is to inspire feelings of awe and wonder, which is due something familiar in a new light, or from a pattern created from a large amount of data (“data mining”) to see. Insight has taken note of logic, language and narrative development. Aesthetic? The story is so compelling, and the “right”, beautiful (aesthetic), not cumbersome, not awkward, uninterrupted, smooth, and so on. Poor? The story should be used for at least a number of assumptions and entities in view of all of the above requirements. Explain? The story is to explain the behavior of economic actors, their decisions, why events developed the way they do. Predictive (prognosis)? The story should have the ability to predict future events and future behavior of economic agents, and other meaningful figures and the inner emotional and cognitive dynamics of the actors said. Prescriptive? The power to effect change (or better, is a question of the value of art and fashion choices). Determination? The story has a better society and guiding organizing principle to be. Elastic? The story has an intrinsic ability to self organize, reorganize, give room to emerging command, accommodate new data, stiffness of the modes of reaction to attacks inside out to avoid. Some of these consider the current economic reports on general theories in disguise. But scientific theories must not only meet most of the above conditions. They must also pass the crucial wrong testability, verifiability, shows errors, falsifiability, and repeatability? all the failed economic theories. Many economists argue that no experiments can be designed to the statements of financial reports to test their truth-value to determine, and so put them theorems.There are five reasons for this failure is concerned – the inability to test hypotheses in The economy: Ethical? Tests to be involved in humans. The required result, subjects are not aware of reasons for tests and their objectives. Sometimes even the performance of the test a secret (double blind tests) remain. Some experiments may involve unpleasant experiences. This is ethically unacceptable. Design problems – Design of Experiments in economics is awkward and difficult. Mistakes are often inevitable, but a careful and meticulous design of the experiment. Psychological Uncertainty Principle? The current status of the person can be (theoretically) fully known. But over time, and try to influence the subject and void this knowledge (“time inconsistencies”). Very processes of measurement and observation influence the subject and change him. Uniqueness? Experiments in economics, which is usually unique and can not be elsewhere and at other times, even though they deal with similar problems. Topics (tested in humans) are never the same as the aforementioned psychological uncertainty principle. Repeated experiments with other subjects affects the scientific value of the results. Understanding Generation is a testable hypothesis? Economics is not appropriate hypotheses, which can be subjected to scientific research. This is related to the fabulous (= storytelling) nature of the discipline. In a sense, the economy has affinity with some private languages. It is an art form in itself is self-sufficient. If structural, internal constraints and requirements are met? considered valid even if they do not satisfy external (scientific) requirements. Thus the standard theory of utility considered valid in economics despite empirical evidence to the contrary – simply because it is aesthetic and mathematically convenient. So, what is a good economic reports? Stories provide the organizing principle of the economic sense of order and followed the law is an inevitable drive toward well defined (though perhaps hidden) goals, the ubiquity of the importance of that part of the whole. They will try to ‘why?’ S ‘and’ how? ‘S’ to answer. They are dialogic and prescriptive (= to behavioral rules). The client (eg a politician) asks: “Why am I (and here the economic problems, or behavior.” Then the story is spun: “The situation is not because the world is capricious and cruel but because of … if you have to do this or that situation can be improved “client, the mere fact that a statement that trouble him so far that there is hope, and -. calmed them by providing the following recipes – it can not be held responsible for any shortcomings of that, who or what the perpetrator (aimed at spreading hatred is far more a political tool), and that is why he believed that the administration of justice and one of the highest, transcendental principle is restored. This sense of “law and order” is further enhanced as the narrative of predictions that come true (either because they produce are self-fulfilling or because some real “law” – indeed, the pattern – is observed) Current IV EconomicsNeo-classical economics has problems on many fronts at the same time, not this multiple failure led to despair and to the basic observations and review the basics: a government, government was granted special status and treatment. … special treatment in economic theory (as opposed with other actors and agents), it was alternately cast as a saint (which is to selflessly maximize social security) -. or a villain (to maintain and relentlessly to increase its strength, as public choice theory) Both views are caricatures of reality, governments do not want to preserve. and increase the power, but they use it primarily to the income and self-enrichment.2 share. Technology and innovation economy has failed the importance of innovation for growth and development. It does not take into account the special characteristics the knowledge industries (where returns increase rather than decrease, and the network effect to win). Thus, the current economic thinking is woefully inadequate to deal with information monopolies (such as Microsoft), path dependence, and pervasive externalities. 3. long-term investment horizon classic cost / benefit analysis is not very long-term investment time horizon address (time). The underlying assumption (opportunity cost of delayed consumption) is not greater than the investor’s financial life. Put more directly: investors care less about their grandchildren in the future because this is their own predictions about far into the future are highly uncertain, and people who refuse to current decisions based on fuzzy “what the IFS.” This is a problem because many current investments (for example: tackling climate change). likely to be delivering results, use the next few decades. There is no effective method of cost / benefit analysis applicable to such time horizons. (continued)

author of the article jekky

The annual Central Economic Work Conference, the meeting ends today, the economic work in 2009 the pace. It is expected that the international financial crisis raged, and the domestic economy against the backdrop turned to, “maintain the growth and development,” there is no doubt that this year the central economic work conference on the theme. Paul was the first goal in eight Politburo meeting recently, particularly in the primary next year is the job of “stable and rapid economic development.” The meeting considered the central economic work conference, “the product should be.” Informed sources, the following year’s economic growth target of 8% guarantee. CICC, the report clearly states that the main economic indicators in China in October to convince the Chinese economy accelerates the decline. And major economic indicators but also bakes in October GDP growth fell by 7%. “The situation is a direct result of the changes wrought by the Government of the Board of Directors meeting of the new macro-economic policies.” May 11 the government to present a proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy to be carried out in order to expand domestic demand and economic growth, measures 10 (hereinafter referred to as “National 10″) and tax incentives to promote “4000000000000″ program, the release of macro-control policies appear to be a clear signal. How the “capital growth” understand? Experts say that the quantification of specific indicators, is “to GDP grew 8% to protect.” Calculated by the CICC 2009 endogenous economic growth of around 6%. Obviously, you want to achieve, “Paul 8″ target, the macro-control policy has a bigger role. Shanghai Securities News boxing combined to ensure employment in a combination of employment measures for the preservation of the proposal is submitted to the Council of State. Clearly, these components may be a future central unit of economic work conference debut. Including policy recommendations, the design of the Human Resources and Social Security sources “central economic work meeting the security of employment measures will be introduced gradually.” It is clear that a combination of punches aimed at preserving jobs for students, migrant workers go home and veterans’ groups to return. The data show that employment in the fourth quarter is not optimistic. 4000000000000 economic stimulus package for the People’s Republic of the university at the end of the macro-economic report states that “The current stimulus package will be the most important heavy industry to improve the industry to facilitate the core, and these areas are not high employment absorption properties . ‘”Paul is from the growth in employment, but also the expansion of the earned income to increase domestic demand will begin. “Hu Jie, chief investment analyst, said the women of the intelligentsia. Human Resources and Social Security sources said that the Central Economic Work Conference, the Government has not only students, migrant workers and other concrete measures of employment, but also finance , taxes, foreign trade and industrial policy for the forces, the formation of the general socio-economic strategy, job security policy to be connected. China Business more policies to expand consumption in the Central Economic Work Conference to domestic demand and consumption to expand the focus on implementation. “Expanding consumption and long-term adjustment in the relationship between domestic demand and foreign demand, and even slow the effects, it has a strategic importance.” Macroeconomic State Development Research Center, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher. 3 State Agency Executive meeting, the financial policies and measures for economic development, active extension of the housing, automotive and consumer credit market in rural areas, an impressive presentation determine promotion. Houses and car consumption in this round of economic growth driven increase in the formation of strong currents, but was depressed, rural consumption is seen as the future status of China, with growth in consumption.

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